The States issued a tranche of data that qualifies for growth though housing still lags behind.
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) was up to 5.0%, well above forecasts of 4.3% and previous figure of 3.9%.
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) shows little movement at 1.4%, the same as expectations and previous.
New Home Sales (Nov) felt the burden of tight mortgage lending at 438K, below the forecast of 460K and last month’s figure of 445K, whilst New Home Sales percentages showed that November slipped a further -1.6%, but was slightly better than last month’s figure of -2.2%.
The annual figure for November’s year on year Core PCE Price Index stood at 1.4%, slightly below the November 2013 figure of 1.5%, whilst the latest monthly figure showed a slowdown to 0.0%, below the forecast of 0.1% and October’s 0.2%.
Consumer Expectations for December reached 86.4, above the forecasted 84.0 and previous 86.1 and though Consumer Sentiment was down from a previous 93.8, the current figure of 93.6 showed a modicum of optimism above expectations of 93.1.
Core Durable Goods Orders for November demonstrated the continuing low wages, the impact of healthcare reforms, and improvement in business investment, taking the November figure to -0.4% from October’s -1.0% (revised from -1.1%) but in no way hitting the forecast of 1.1%
The FT reported, “Analysts expect solid consumption and investment growth to drive the US onwards next year, but warn that the torrid pace of recent quarters is unlikely to continue,” and a comment on the article noted, “the economy will implode by 2016.” Views on the economy and the markets at this point of the year’s-end are varied but the growth figures on GDP and the upward trend of stock share prices and indices demonstrate the present and correct recovery of the US and a growth rate. It is now up to the Federal Reserve to control growth at a sustainable level and further support the dollar, and that will come from a possible key rate adjustment in 2015.
DollarIndex levelled off and the Vix Index started to retreat with trading volumes down over the holiday period. USA500 [S&P500] is still gaining and reaching record closes.
MT4 chart: DollarIndex
MT4 chart: Vixx
MT4 chart: USA500 [S&P500]
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